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Page 16 text:
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World THE OULF Fight to the Finish The uinker war tils a lull, but Iraq ears a new land offensive The focus in Ihe 4S-monlh-old uar helween Iran and Iraq shiTled lasl wetk from the tepid waters of the Per- sian Gulf where the two sides have at- tacked about a do en oil tankers since Ihe end of March, to the sweltering marshlands along the southern border between the two belligerents According to Iraqi estimates. Iran had as many as half a million men poised to launch a new ground offensive at any time. The Iranians have also brought Hawk mis- siles, armor and artillery into the area Despite recurring reports of disagree- ment in Tehran about the wisdom of launching yet another human-wave as- sault, there was little doubt that if Iran ' s their pocketbooks. not their guns. The Saudis can avoid a clash as long as the Iranians limit their attacks to tankers at sea If they hit ships in the vicinity of the Saudi port of Ras Tanura or the Kuwaiti port of Mena al Ahmadi. a Saudi or Ku- waiti response might be unavoidable. Lven more serious would be an Iranian attack on Saudi or Kuwaiti desalinizalion or electric power plants In the meantime. Saudi Arabia is try- ing to exert some infl uence over Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who began the tanker attacks earlier this year as a way of forcing Khomeini to enter into peace ne- gotiations But Saddam Hussein will not lift his siege of Iran as long as Khomeini With a tanker In the background, the U.S.S. Luce lies at anchor off Bahrain Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini orders a new offensive, the battle will take place Iraq attacked two Iranian oil facilities last week; the damage was apparently slight, and Iran did not respond While the Arab states tried to get the United Nations Security Council to condemn Iran for its intransigence. Syria, al the be- hest of the Saudis, sent to Tehran a dele- gation headed by Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam He reportedly carried a Saudi offer to try to press Iraq to lift its siege of Iranian oil ports if Khomeini would agree to negotiate The Iranians re- jected the idea. As a US diplomat put it: No one has cracked Khomeini He hears but he doesn ' t listen Similarly. Turkish Prime Minister Turgut O al visited Baghdad and gently look the Iraqis to task for attacking Turk- ish tankers carrying Iranian crude oil in the gulf, but he got little satisfaction As Iraqi Information Minister Latif Nasif Jasim later e.xplained. How can we know which ship our rockets hit? The Saudis have been trying to con- tain tensions in the area, hoping that rea- son will somehow prevail They are des- perately seeking to prevent the conflict, as well as Khomeinis brand of Islamic fun- damentalism, from spreading Says a se- nior Western diplomat in Jidda: They are timid balancers. Their power is in seems set on toppling Iraq ' s government. According to senior Iranian military officers. Iran is making contingency plans to guard against the intrusion of US and other Western naval vessels in the gulf The Iranian navy has acquired rubber dinghies that, when equipped with out- board motors, are extremely fast and highly maneuverable The strategy is to fill several of these boats with explosives and ram them, kamikaze-style, against an enemy ship Alternatively, the dinghies can carry two-man crews equipped with rocket-propelled grenades In the event of US intervention. Iran would try to use these dinghy knights. as the Iranians call them, to cause the U.S. to suffer unac- ceptably high losses. At week ' s end Iran issued a rare con- ciliatory note when Assembly Speaker Hashemi Rafsanjani declared. As far as it is possible, we will prevent a catastro- phe in the Persian Gulf from occurring by diplomacy He hastened to reiterate, however, his government ' s determination to overthrow Saddam Hussein. For the moment, neither Iran nor Iraq has the power to end the war. but both have the capacity to invoke continued devasta- tion on the other and hardship on their neighbors —By WilUam E. Smith. Re- j ported by Barry Hillenbrand Jidda and Johanna I McCeary Washington ! riMb.JUNb II. 1984
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